By Trine Holten
For most young people, the transition to adulthood is not a single event. It is a long and often uneven process, involving education, work, income, housing, health, and social belonging. It is also a process that is rarely undertaken alone. Many young adults continue to receive extensive support from parents and family well into their twenties: a room to return to, help with practical problems, financial assistance, advice, and emotional security.
For young people who have grown up in out-of-home care, this background support cannot be taken for granted. This makes the transition from school to work a particularly important question for child protection research and social policy.
In our recent study, Kirsti Klem Valset and I examine how young people with experience from out-of-home care move from school into adult employment. We use Norwegian national register data to follow individuals born between 1983 and 1985 from age 16 to age 36. This allows us to study not only whether someone is employed at one point in time, but how education, income, welfare benefits and labour-market attachment unfold across two decades.
That distinction is important. A single outcome measured at age 22 or 25 may give a misleading picture. Some young people enter employment early, but remain in low-income positions for a long time. Others spend longer in education before reaching stable income. Others again move into trajectories marked by health-related benefits, weak labour-market attachment or social exclusion. The transition to adulthood is therefore better understood as a sequence than as a moment.
Why school-to-work transitions matter
Employment is not only a source of income. It is also one of the main institutions through which adults gain social recognition, everyday structure, economic independence and inclusion in society. In a Nordic welfare state such as Norway, where education is free and welfare institutions are comparatively inclusive, we might expect disadvantaged childhood experiences to be partly compensated for by public institutions.
This is exactly why the Norwegian case is sociologically and politically important. If young people with out-of-home care experience still face elevated risks of disadvantaged school-to-work trajectories in Norway, then the problem cannot be explained simply by tuition fees, absent welfare institutions or a weak safety net. It points instead to a deeper life-course problem: disadvantages accumulated during childhood may continue into adulthood even in relatively inclusive welfare states.
Our study is grounded in a life-course perspective. This means that we examine how earlier experiences, institutional support and timing shape later outcomes. Childhood adversity, interrupted schooling, placement history, family background, health problems and access to aftercare may all influence how young people move into adult roles.
What we studied
We focused on young people who had experienced out-of-home care between the ages of 13 and 17. This includes foster care and residential care. We also examined aftercare, that is, support provided after the age of 18 and up to age 23.
The data allowed us to distinguish between different care histories. We did not treat all young people with child protection experience as one homogeneous group. This is crucial. Young people in foster care, residential care and support measures may have quite different backgrounds, needs and institutional experiences.
Using sequence analysis, we identified five main school-to-work trajectories from age 16 to 36:
- NEETW to early death
A highly disadvantaged trajectory, marked by being outside education, employment, training and welfare benefits, followed by early death. - Health-related benefits
A trajectory characterised by long-term reliance on health-related welfare benefits. - Higher education to normal income
A more favourable trajectory, where individuals complete higher education and move into ordinary earnings. - Early normal income
A trajectory where individuals enter employment relatively early and reach normal income. - Long-term low income to normal income
A trajectory where individuals spend a longer period in low-income work before eventually reaching normal income.
These categories are not moral judgements about individuals. They are empirical patterns in register data. They help us see how institutional and social inequalities take shape across time.
The main finding: out-of-home care is associated with elevated risk
Our findings show that young people with out-of-home care experience are more likely than peers without child protection experience to follow disadvantaged school-to-work trajectories.
They are particularly overrepresented in trajectories marked by health-related benefits and, in the most severe cases, NEETW status followed by early death. They are also less likely to follow the trajectory from higher education to normal income.
This does not mean that out-of-home care itself simply causes these later outcomes. Register studies of this kind must be interpreted carefully. Young people placed in care often have experienced substantial adversity before placement. Their biological parents also tend, on average, to have fewer socioeconomic resources, and placement decisions are shaped by complex family and individual circumstances.
Still, the pattern is clear: young people with out-of-home care experience face significantly more difficult transitions into adult education and work than young people without such experience.
Foster care, residential care and differentiated risk
One important contribution of the study is that we distinguish between different forms of out-of-home care.
Young people who were in residential care at age 17 were especially likely to follow disadvantaged trajectories, including health-related benefits and NEETW-to-early-death. This should not be read as evidence that residential care in itself produces these outcomes. Rather, it likely reflects that young people in residential care often have more complex life situations and support needs.
Young people in foster care generally had more favourable outcomes than those in residential care, but still faced higher risks than peers without child protection experience.
The policy implication is straightforward but demanding: care leavers should not be treated as one uniform group. Institutional histories matter. The type of placement, the timing of support and the continuity of adult relationships all appear relevant for later school-to-work transitions.
Aftercare matters, but not in a simple way
A central question in the study is whether aftercare makes a difference.
Our findings suggest that aftercare can matter, especially for young people who were in foster care at age 17 and continued in foster care as an aftercare measure. This group was more likely to follow a trajectory marked by higher education and normal income than those who were in foster care at age 17 but did not receive aftercare. They were also less likely to follow the health-related benefits trajectory.
This finding is important because it supports a broader interpretation of aftercare. Aftercare should not be understood merely as an administrative extension of child protection services. It may function as a compensatory institution in the transition to adulthood. It can provide some of the continuity, practical support and relational stability that many other young people receive from their families.
At the same time, the findings do not suggest that all aftercare measures have the same effect. Aftercare is not a single intervention. It varies in form, intensity, quality and timing. Its consequences are likely shaped by the young person’s previous care situation and by the kind of support actually provided.
Turning 18 is not the same as becoming adult
One of the broader lessons from the study is that legal adulthood is a poor proxy for social adulthood.
Most young people do not become independent at 18. They become independent gradually, with support. Yet young people leaving care may be expected to manage the transition to adulthood under conditions that are more abrupt and less secure than those faced by their peers.
From a social-policy perspective, this is problematic. If the state has assumed responsibility for a child through out-of-home care, then the question cannot be limited to whether the child was protected at a particular point in time. We must also ask whether the institutional pathway made a viable adulthood possible.
This requires a longer time horizon in child protection policy. The relevant outcome is not only immediate safety, but also educational continuity, health, work, income security and social integration over time.
What this means for child protection and welfare services
The study has several implications.
First, education must be treated as central to child protection. Completing upper secondary education and having access to further education are crucial for later labour-market inclusion. Educational disruption during adolescence may have long-term consequences.
Second, aftercare should be understood as a core part of responsible child protection, not as a marginal or optional service. Young people leaving care need stable, predictable and differentiated support.
Third, welfare services must coordinate more effectively. Child protection services, schools, NAV, health services and local follow-up systems all become relevant in the transition to adulthood. Fragmented support can leave young people exposed precisely at the point where institutional continuity is most needed.
Fourth, professional judgement must be life-course oriented. The task is not only to assess immediate risk or current functioning, but to consider what kind of adult trajectory the young person is being enabled to enter.
A cautious but demanding conclusion
Our study does not show that all young people with out-of-home care experience are destined for disadvantage. Many do establish stable adult lives. Nor does it show that aftercare is a simple solution to complex social problems.
But the study does show that young people with out-of-home care experience remain at elevated risk of disadvantaged school-to-work transitions, even in Norway’s inclusive welfare-state context. It also shows that continued support, particularly continued foster care after age 18, may improve the probability of more favourable trajectories involving education and normal income.
The conclusion is therefore both empirical and normative. If child protection is to be evaluated seriously, we must ask not only whether children are protected from immediate harm, but whether they are given realistic conditions for becoming adults. A child protection system worthy of its mandate must be concerned not only with placement, but with life chances.






