New Publication: COVID-19 Impacts, Vaccination, and Underreporting in Chiapas, Mexico
Four PANSOC-affiliated researchers have just published a new open access paper in BMC Infectious Diseases examining the COVID-19 pandemic in Chiapas, Mexico, a region with a large indigenous population.
Elienai Joaquin-Damas, PANSOC collaborator during the 2022–23 Centre for Advanced Study project on Indigenous Peoples and Pandemics, is the lead author of this study that uses survey data from secondary school students to capture the prevalence of COVID-19 infections, deaths, and vaccine uptake. Centre leader Svenn-Erik Mamelund, postdoc Ben Schneider, and researcher Gerardo Chowell also contributed to the paper.
The study suggests substantial underreporting of COVID-related deaths in Chiapas: while national statistics reported just 212 cases and one death in the municipality of Chamula, which had a population of more than 75,000, 14% of survey respondents reported at least one COVID infection for themselves, and 4.7% reported at least one death in their household. Compounding these findings, at the time of the survey in September-October 2023 almost 80% of respondents had not received a single dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
The study suggests that despite increased attention to indigenous communities in public health research and practice in recent decades, large disparities remain both in data collection and policies to reduce health inequalities.
New Preprint: Systematic Review of Moqsuito-Borne Arboviral Infections in Europe
While at PANSOC, postdoc Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar co-authored a new preprint systematically reviewing the prevalance of Aedes-borne (mosquito-carried) Arboviral infections in Europe in recent decades.
The authors carried out a registered systematic review of studies that discuss the spread of various diseases transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes in Europe from 2000 to 2023. These diseases, including dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and West Nile virus, pose a substantial and growing threat to public health. The review found that while most cases identified in the literature were travel-related, more than 15% originated in Europe. The overall case fatality rate in the 479 studies reviewed was about 1%. Most of these diseases do not have available treatments or vaccination, which increases the importance of surveillance and prevention policies.
New Publication: Reproducibility in Epidemiology
Recent PANSOC postdoc Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar contributed a co-authored chapter during her time with us to the Springer Handbook of Epidemiology on reproducibility in this scientific field.
The authors establish a stepwise framework for epidemiologists to improve reproducibility, which is a topic of increasing interest and relevance in science and metascience. The ten steps discussed cover the entire research process from idea development to paper submission, and in each step the chapter discusses researcher concerns and implementation of the step. The chapter then presents how the use of these steps enhanced the reliability of research using a practical example of epidemiology from the UK.
New Publication: The History and Development of “Influenza” in English
During her time at PANSOC, postdoc Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar published an article in the Proceedings of the Computational Humanities Research Conference providing an explanation of the use of the term “influenza” in English, in contrast to the more common “grippe” of other Indo-European languages.
While most Indo-European languages refer to the disease using some variant of “grippe”, Italian, English, Uralic, and Nordic languages have preferred “influenza” (which has an Italian origin). The authors argue that “influenza” in contrast to “grippe”, sounds sufficiently different from other English words to avoid ambiguity in understanding. They test the linguistic space available for possible terms that could be used to describe influenza and posit that the term selected provided less ambiguity than the terms used in other Indo-European languages.
PANSOC Leader Svenn-Erik Mamelund Invited to Interview for ERC Advanced Grant
The Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC) is pleased to announce that Professor Svenn-Erik Mamelund, head of the centre, has been invited to interview for an Advanced Grant from the European Research Council (ERC).
Professor Mamelund’s groundbreaking research design will combine historical data and modern virology methods to shed new light on the long-term consequences of the 1918 influenza and other flu pandemics. This research proposal is particularly scientifically and socially relevant given not only the recent COVID-19 pandemic, but the ongoing risk of new influenza pandemics, such as from H5N1.
The ERC Pillar I stream is the most competitive and prestigious research funding programme in Europe, supporting transformational new advances in science across disciplines. The Advanced Grant competition invites applications from senior researchers with a well-established track record of excellence in their field, and interview invitations are only extended to 30–40% of this select group.
Pandemics & Society Seminar, 5 December: The First Wave of the 1918 Influenza and the Western Front
For the final Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Srijita Pal (University of Southern California). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 5 December at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.
Abstract
The first wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic occurred during a crucial moment in the First World War, yet despite this temporal overlap, their interactions remain underexplored by military and medical historians alike. This presentation, however, focuses on the unique challenges that were created when soldiers faced two enemies—war and disease—at once, contending that the first wave of the pandemic crucially impacted the war. Looking at the months of May through July of 1918, this presentation will put forward the argument that the timing of the first wave of the flu, alongside a fundamental misunderstanding of the disease fatally debilitated the German Army during the Kaiserschlacht, or Spring Offensive, all while passing over the better medically equipped French Army months before during a time in which they faced no major offensives. Then focusing primarily on the experiences of the German Sixth Armeeoberkommando, this presentation will look at how the disease affected soldiers in a way that directly impacted the tactical and operational pursuits of the German Army during Operation Marneschütz-Reims, contributing to the ultimate failure of the operation and, subsequently, contributing to the failure of the Spring Offensive. Drawing from years of extensive archival work, this presentation showcases historical evidence that places the influenza pandemic and the First World War not just as parallel historical events, but intertwined global catastrophes that changed the trajectory of twentieth century Europe.
About the Speaker
Srijita Pal is a doctoral candidate in the Department of History at the University of Southern California where she studies modern European history and the history of science and medicine. In addition to holding bachelor’s degrees in both Microbiology and History from the University of California, Davis, she additionally holds a master’s degree in World History from New York University.
Pandemics & Society Seminar, 21 November: Excess Mortality in Mainland China after the End of the Zero COVID Policy
For the penultimate Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Isaac Fung (Georgia Southern University). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 21 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.
Abstract
Background: After the Zero COVID policy ended on December 7, 2022, ~90% of the mainland Chinese population were infected in a COVID-19 wave. This systematic review synthesized research estimating excess mortality during that wave in mainland China.
Methods: We searched seven bibliographic databases with specified keywords on May 9 and 16, 2024. Peer-reviewed research articles in Chinese or English, published since January 1, 2023, estimating excess deaths at the population level due to the COVID-19 wave following the end of the Zero COVID policy were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Two authors independently conducted abstract screening, full-text review, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment. We estimated all-cause mortality in mainland China by extrapolating Shanghai data with age-standardization.
Results: Seven articles were included. Two analyses of Shanghai’s death records of a town and a district estimated the respective excess mortality rates of 153.60% and 174.33%. Extrapolating the district’s data to the whole mainland China, we estimated the all-cause mortality to be 4.96 million, of which 3.14 million would be excess deaths. Using indirect methods, four studies estimated national excess mortality, ranging from 0.71 million to 1.87 million. Another study estimated excess mortality in Taiyuan.
Conclusions: Studies using indirect methods provided national all-cause mortality estimates lower than estimates extrapolated from a Shanghai district’s death records. Choice of reference period, seasonality, and other factors affect expected mortality estimation. Excess mortality is the difference between actual and expected mortality; uncertainties in the latter two result in uncertainty in the former.
About the Speaker
Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, PhD, is an associate professor of epidemiology in the Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University. His current research interests include COVID-19 epidemiology, pandemic preparedness and emergency response. He has published 100+ publications in peer-reviewed journals. He was a CDC Prevention Effectiveness Fellow in 2011-2013 in which he was part of the 2013 avian influenza H7N9 emergency response. Since joining Georgia Southern University in 2013, Fung has helped create its Doctor of Public Health (DrPH) epidemiology program. Fung’s group has graduated 3 DrPH epidemiology students so far: the first doctoral student now works for the CDC; the second one proceeded to Harvard for postdoc and now works in the industry; the third one is currently a postdoc at the University of Kentucky.
Pandemics & Society Seminar, 14 November: Racialized Epidemiologies: The Case of Black Americans During the Great Influenza, 1918–1920
For the seventh Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Paul Skäbe (Universität Leipzig). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 14 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.
Abstract
Historical discussions of African Americans’ experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic frequently revolve around the epidemiological data that emerged from this event. A persistent historical narrative has been that Black Americans fared relatively better compared to white Americans – a narrative that is as surprising as it is counterintuitive, since racialized segregation and consistent discrimination in medical care produced truly dismal health indicators during the early 20th century. Throughout the pandemic years, a multitude of medical studies appeared in the most prominent scientific journals of the time which would not only shape contemporary understandings of the not-yet-identified virus, but also pattern influenza knowledge for years to come. Significantly, these epidemiological discourses centrally revolved around questions of racialized difference. In my presentation, I will try to grapple with the epidemiological data and share my perspective as cultural historian on it, arguing that we are dealing with fundamentally racialized epidemiologies,organized by a black/white taxonomy of race. They largely emerged from racially segregated military base camps, considered by contemporary researchers as ideal laboratory conditions to study the human body and disease, but have also had a lasting effect on the historical understanding of the 1918 pandemic.
About the Speaker
Paul Skäbe is a research fellow at the LeipzigLab “Global Health” and the Research Center Global Dynamics (both Leipzig University),where he is currently working on his dissertation with the title “Responsibilization, Racialized Space, and the Great Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” His project focuses on Black Americans’ history during the pandemic, investigating the confluence of racialized discourses and epidemiology, the work of Black health care professionals in pandemic relief,and the daily lived experience of Black Americans at the intersection of segregation and public health. The PhD project is part of the DFG-funded research project “Pandemic Space: Understanding Quarantine and Responsibilization in Times of Corona.”