Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC)

For the penultimate Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Isaac Fung (Georgia Southern University). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 21 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

Background: After the Zero COVID policy ended on December 7, 2022, ~90% of the mainland Chinese population were infected in a COVID-19 wave. This systematic review synthesized research estimating excess mortality during that wave in mainland China. 

Methods: We searched seven bibliographic databases with specified keywords on May 9 and 16, 2024. Peer-reviewed research articles in Chinese or English, published since January 1, 2023, estimating excess deaths at the population level due to the COVID-19 wave following the end of the Zero COVID policy were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Two authors independently conducted abstract screening, full-text review, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment. We estimated all-cause mortality in mainland China by extrapolating Shanghai data with age-standardization.

Results: Seven articles were included. Two analyses of Shanghai’s death records of a town and a district estimated the respective excess mortality rates of 153.60% and 174.33%. Extrapolating the district’s data to the whole mainland China, we estimated the all-cause mortality to be 4.96 million, of which 3.14 million would be excess deaths. Using indirect methods, four studies estimated national excess mortality, ranging from 0.71 million to 1.87 million. Another study estimated excess mortality in Taiyuan. 

Conclusions: Studies using indirect methods provided national all-cause mortality estimates lower than estimates extrapolated from a Shanghai district’s death records. Choice of reference period, seasonality, and other factors affect expected mortality estimation. Excess mortality is the difference between actual and expected mortality; uncertainties in the latter two result in uncertainty in the former.

About the Speaker

Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, PhD, is an associate professor of epidemiology in the Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University. His current research interests include COVID-19 epidemiology, pandemic preparedness and emergency response. He has published 100+ publications in peer-reviewed journals. He was a CDC Prevention Effectiveness Fellow in 2011-2013 in which he was part of the 2013 avian influenza H7N9 emergency response. Since joining Georgia Southern University in 2013, Fung has helped create its Doctor of Public Health (DrPH) epidemiology program. Fung’s group has graduated 3 DrPH epidemiology students so far: the first doctoral student now works for the CDC; the second one proceeded to Harvard for postdoc and now works in the industry; the third one is currently a postdoc at the University of Kentucky.

For the seventh Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Paul Skäbe (Universität Leipzig). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 14 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

Historical discussions of African Americans’ experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic frequently revolve around the epidemiological data that emerged from this event. A persistent historical narrative has been that Black Americans fared relatively better compared to white Americans – a narrative that is as surprising as it is counterintuitive, since racialized segregation and consistent discrimination in medical care produced truly dismal health indicators during the early 20th century. Throughout the pandemic years, a multitude of medical studies appeared in the most prominent scientific journals of the time which would not only shape contemporary understandings of the not-yet-identified virus, but also pattern influenza knowledge for years to come. Significantly, these epidemiological discourses centrally revolved around questions of racialized difference. In my presentation, I will try to grapple with the epidemiological data and share my perspective as cultural historian on it, arguing that we are dealing with fundamentally racialized epidemiologies,organized by a black/white taxonomy of race. They largely emerged from racially segregated military base camps, considered by contemporary researchers as ideal laboratory conditions to study the human body and disease, but have also had a lasting effect on the historical understanding of the 1918 pandemic.

About the Speaker

Paul Skäbe is a research fellow at the LeipzigLab “Global Health” and the Research Center Global Dynamics (both Leipzig University),where he is currently working on his dissertation with the title “Responsibilization, Racialized Space, and the Great Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” His project focuses on Black Americans’ history during the pandemic, investigating the confluence of racialized discourses and epidemiology, the work of Black health care professionals in pandemic relief,and the daily lived experience of Black Americans at the intersection of segregation and public health. The PhD project is part of the DFG-funded research project “Pandemic Space: Understanding Quarantine and Responsibilization in Times of Corona.”

For the sixth Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Andrea Tilstra (University of Oxford). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 7 November at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

About the Speaker

Andrea Tilstra is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. She is based in the Departments of Population Health and Sociology and at Nuffield College. Her work spans quantitative medical sociology and social demography, and seeks to better understand the underlying social determinants of population health.

For the fifth Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Jeff Clement (Augsburg University). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 31 October at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. For our attendees outside of Europe, please note that Central European Summer Time has ended, you can check the seminar time in your time zone here. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

Working Paper available here

Empirical investigations of many information systems phenomena are complicated by endogeneity. The Covid-19 pandemic prompted a wide range of policy and societal changes that seem to present a natural experiment. Researchers have attempted to use these changes, such as mandated closures of non-essential businesses, as exogenous shocks or instrumental variables in causal inference, with the goal of evaluating a theory or phenomenon not related to the pandemic. However, the rationale that the Covid-19 response prompted changes (such as business and school closures) that were decided by an agent “outside the unit of analysis” is not sufficient to meet the criteria for exogeneity. We concisely describe and demonstrate via simulation that the wide-ranging impacts of Covid-19—which were driven by politics, personality, and socioeconomics, and implemented in bundles—violate the parallel trends assumption for difference-in-differences analyses and the exclusion restriction for instrumental variable analyses. Our hope is that this analysis helps IS researchers avoid such problems moving forward.

About the Speaker

Jeff Clement is an Assistant Professor of Information Systems at the School of Business and Economics at Augsburg University in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. His research explores topics in healthcare (especially related to emergency/pre-hospital care and pharmaceuticals), AI-augmented decisions, and the intersection of those topics. He received his PhD from the University of Minnesota.