Pandemics & Society Seminar, 7 November: Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure
For the sixth Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Andrea Tilstra (University of Oxford). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 7 November at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.
Abstract
The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.
About the Speaker
Andrea Tilstra is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. She is based in the Departments of Population Health and Sociology and at Nuffield College. Her work spans quantitative medical sociology and social demography, and seeks to better understand the underlying social determinants of population health.