Category: Pandemics & Society Seminars

For the first Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Spring 2025 series we are pleased to welcome Alex Brown (Durham University). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 20 February at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

This talk introduces our new Leverhulme-funded project: ‘Modelling the Black Death and Social Connectivity in Medieval England’. The Black Death of 1348–9 stands ‘unchallenged as the greatest disaster in documented human history’, yet the characteristics of the disease that killed approximately half the population of Europe in just a handful of years have long confounded academics. Although largely thought to be caused by Yersinia pestis, it is still unclear how the disease spread so quickly in a preindustrial society. We will introduce our project which hopes to use the latest computer modelling developed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak to simulate the spread of the Black Death in England. Using historical and archaeological sources, we will reconstruct the broad characteristics of the late medieval population on the eve of the Black Death, such as their location, age, sex, and occupation. This is the ‘static’ part of our model. We will then infer their ‘dynamic’ behavioural patterns, such as where they spent their time and whom they encountered in their daily lives. Our primary objectives are to establish how the Black Death spread, the likely means of its transmission, and what this reveals about social connections in medieval society. 

About the Speaker

Dr Alex Brown is an Associate Professor of Medieval History at Durham University and is currently the Principal Investigator on the Leverhulme-funded research project, ‘Modelling the Black Death and Social Connectivity in Medieval England’. He has published widely on the economic and social history of late medieval England. 

For the final Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Srijita Pal (University of Southern California). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 5 December at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

The first wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic occurred during a crucial moment in the First World War, yet despite this temporal overlap, their interactions remain underexplored by military and medical historians alike. This presentation, however, focuses on the unique challenges that were created when soldiers faced two enemies—war and disease—at once, contending that the first wave of the pandemic crucially impacted the war. Looking at the months of May through July of 1918, this presentation will put forward the argument that the timing of the first wave of the flu, alongside a fundamental misunderstanding of the disease fatally debilitated the German Army during the Kaiserschlacht, or Spring Offensive, all while passing over the better medically equipped French Army months before during a time in which they faced no major offensives. Then focusing primarily on the experiences of the German Sixth Armeeoberkommando, this presentation will look at how the disease affected soldiers in a way that directly impacted the tactical and operational pursuits of the German Army during Operation Marneschütz-Reims, contributing to the ultimate failure of the operation and, subsequently, contributing to the failure of the Spring Offensive. Drawing from years of extensive archival work, this presentation showcases historical evidence that places the influenza pandemic and the First World War not just as parallel historical events, but intertwined global catastrophes that changed the trajectory of twentieth century Europe.

About the Speaker

Srijita Pal is a doctoral candidate in the Department of History at the University of Southern California where she studies modern European history and the history of science and medicine. In addition to holding bachelor’s degrees in both Microbiology and History from the University of California, Davis, she additionally holds a master’s degree in World History from New York University.

For the penultimate Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Isaac Fung (Georgia Southern University). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 21 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

Background: After the Zero COVID policy ended on December 7, 2022, ~90% of the mainland Chinese population were infected in a COVID-19 wave. This systematic review synthesized research estimating excess mortality during that wave in mainland China. 

Methods: We searched seven bibliographic databases with specified keywords on May 9 and 16, 2024. Peer-reviewed research articles in Chinese or English, published since January 1, 2023, estimating excess deaths at the population level due to the COVID-19 wave following the end of the Zero COVID policy were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Two authors independently conducted abstract screening, full-text review, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment. We estimated all-cause mortality in mainland China by extrapolating Shanghai data with age-standardization.

Results: Seven articles were included. Two analyses of Shanghai’s death records of a town and a district estimated the respective excess mortality rates of 153.60% and 174.33%. Extrapolating the district’s data to the whole mainland China, we estimated the all-cause mortality to be 4.96 million, of which 3.14 million would be excess deaths. Using indirect methods, four studies estimated national excess mortality, ranging from 0.71 million to 1.87 million. Another study estimated excess mortality in Taiyuan. 

Conclusions: Studies using indirect methods provided national all-cause mortality estimates lower than estimates extrapolated from a Shanghai district’s death records. Choice of reference period, seasonality, and other factors affect expected mortality estimation. Excess mortality is the difference between actual and expected mortality; uncertainties in the latter two result in uncertainty in the former.

About the Speaker

Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, PhD, is an associate professor of epidemiology in the Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University. His current research interests include COVID-19 epidemiology, pandemic preparedness and emergency response. He has published 100+ publications in peer-reviewed journals. He was a CDC Prevention Effectiveness Fellow in 2011-2013 in which he was part of the 2013 avian influenza H7N9 emergency response. Since joining Georgia Southern University in 2013, Fung has helped create its Doctor of Public Health (DrPH) epidemiology program. Fung’s group has graduated 3 DrPH epidemiology students so far: the first doctoral student now works for the CDC; the second one proceeded to Harvard for postdoc and now works in the industry; the third one is currently a postdoc at the University of Kentucky.

For the seventh Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Paul Skäbe (Universität Leipzig). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 14 November at the normal time (1600 CET). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

Historical discussions of African Americans’ experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic frequently revolve around the epidemiological data that emerged from this event. A persistent historical narrative has been that Black Americans fared relatively better compared to white Americans – a narrative that is as surprising as it is counterintuitive, since racialized segregation and consistent discrimination in medical care produced truly dismal health indicators during the early 20th century. Throughout the pandemic years, a multitude of medical studies appeared in the most prominent scientific journals of the time which would not only shape contemporary understandings of the not-yet-identified virus, but also pattern influenza knowledge for years to come. Significantly, these epidemiological discourses centrally revolved around questions of racialized difference. In my presentation, I will try to grapple with the epidemiological data and share my perspective as cultural historian on it, arguing that we are dealing with fundamentally racialized epidemiologies,organized by a black/white taxonomy of race. They largely emerged from racially segregated military base camps, considered by contemporary researchers as ideal laboratory conditions to study the human body and disease, but have also had a lasting effect on the historical understanding of the 1918 pandemic.

About the Speaker

Paul Skäbe is a research fellow at the LeipzigLab “Global Health” and the Research Center Global Dynamics (both Leipzig University),where he is currently working on his dissertation with the title “Responsibilization, Racialized Space, and the Great Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” His project focuses on Black Americans’ history during the pandemic, investigating the confluence of racialized discourses and epidemiology, the work of Black health care professionals in pandemic relief,and the daily lived experience of Black Americans at the intersection of segregation and public health. The PhD project is part of the DFG-funded research project “Pandemic Space: Understanding Quarantine and Responsibilization in Times of Corona.”

For the sixth Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2024 series we are pleased to welcome Andrea Tilstra (University of Oxford). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 7 November at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

About the Speaker

Andrea Tilstra is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Research Fellow at the University of Oxford, at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. She is based in the Departments of Population Health and Sociology and at Nuffield College. Her work spans quantitative medical sociology and social demography, and seeks to better understand the underlying social determinants of population health.