Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC)
An OsloMet Centre of Research Excellence studying the societal aspects of pandemics
Journalist Annalisa Merelli in Quartz.com has interviewed our master student Carla Hughes on her research on the 1918 influenza and suicide risks while centre leader Mamelund has shared earlier research and his thoughts on the increases risks of asylum hospitalizations assoctaed with the “Spanish flu” pandemic. Read more in here: Why is the great resignation happening? — Quartz (qz.com)
Nan Zou Bakkeli at PANSOC and Consumption Reserch Norway has just published a new paper in the journal “Social Science Computer Review”. You can read it here: Predicting Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Socioeconomic Factors Matter? – Nan Zou Bakkeli, 2022 (sagepub.com)
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed considerable challenges to people’s mental health, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression increased substantially during the pandemic. Early detection of potential depression is crucial for timely preventive interventions; therefore, there is a need for depression prediction.
This study was based on survey data collected from 5001 Norwegians (3001 in 2020 and 2000 in 2021). Machine learning models were used to predict depression risk and to select models with the best performance for each pandemic phase. Probability thresholds were chosen based on cost-sensitive analysis, and measures such as accuracy (ACC) and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the models’ performance.
The study found that decision tree models and regularised regressions had the best performance in both 2020 and 2021. For the 2020 predictions, the highest accuracies were obtained using gradient boosting machines (ACC = 0.72, AUC = 0.74) and random forest algorithm (ACC = 0.71, AUC = 0.75). For the 2021 predictions, the random forest (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) and elastic net regularisation (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) exhibited the best performances. Highly ranked predictors of depression that remained stable over time were self-perceived exposure risks, income, compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions, frequency of being outdoors, contact with family and friends and work–life conflict. While epidemiological factors (having COVID symptoms or having close contact with the infected) influenced the level of psychological distress to a larger extent in the relatively early stage of pandemic, the importance of socioeconomic factors (gender, age, household type and employment status) increased substantially in the later stage.Conclusion: Machine learning models consisting of demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and epidemiological features can be used for fast ‘first-hand’ screening to diagnose mental health problems. The models may be helpful for stakeholders and healthcare providers to provide early diagnosis and intervention, as well as to provide insight into forecasting which social groups are more vulnerable to mental illness in which social settings.
Friday the 3rd of March, 3 PANSOC members presented their work in the session “Short- and long-term social and demographic of the 1918 influenza pandemic, see more info on this an other sesssions here: ESHD2022 Final Programme – ESHD2022 Conference
Kaspar Staub, the lead author on a paper we at PANSOC just co-authored, has been interviewed about our common research in Der Spiegel. You can read more here: Corona-Pandemie: Wie verheerend ist das Coronavirus im historischen Vergleich? – DER SPIEGEL
PANSOC co-leader Jessica Dimka recently recorded an episode of the Sausage of Science podcast from the Human Biology Association. The focus of the interview was her recent paper, co-authored with Lisa Sattenspiel of the University of Missouri, titled “’We didn’t get much schooling because we were fishing all the time’: Potential impacts of irregular school attendance on the spread of epidemics.”
Listen to the podcast: https://soundcloud.com/humanbiologyassociation/sos-151-modeling-a-pandemic-with-dr-jessica-dimka
Read the paper: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23578
As an OsloMet Centre of Research Excellence, we at PANSOC are so proud to have co-authored an original research article with Swiss colleagues in “Annals of Internal Medicine”. This highly prestigious journal has an impact factor of 25.4 and is considered one of top 5 in medicine together with JAMA, New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet and The BMJ. You can read the paper here:
Christina Stylegar Torjussen’s talk on “Kong Sverre – The Death Ship” is now available here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GRr6MnyeonSxwJn_YJKknD_lwftulIVf/view?usp=sharing
And you can catch up on previous webinars here:
On Thursday, 3 February, at 1600 CET, Chinmay Tumbe, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, will present:
India and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Mortality Estimates and Correlates
India was the worst affected country in the influenza pandemic of 1918, losing more people than the global battle death toll of World War I. This paper uses a new dataset with more complete coverage than previous studies by incorporating the princely states and using the inter-censal estimation method, estimates mortality to be closer to 20 million, higher than previous estimates. It also analyses the regional variation in influenza mortality and attributes it to undernutrition linked to an acute drought preceding the influenza attack and the accompanying price surge, and compares this explanation with others provided in the literature. Finally, the talk also compares India’s 1918 experience with that of 2021, when it faced its largest shock to all-cause mortality in a century.
Read more about Chinmay and his work here.
Fra 15 august 2022 til 30 Juni 2023 skal senterleder Mamelund lede en forskergruppe på Centre for Advanced Study – CAS. I forbindelse med dette prosjektet har vi vært så heldige å få de verdensledende toppforskerne Jeffrey Tauenberger og John Oxford til å gi gjesteforelesninger om jakten på viruset som forårsaket spanskesyken på Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi 8 november 2022. I vedlagte lenke kan dere 1) lese mer om de to foredragsholderne og deres foredrag og 2) og allerede nå melde dere på om dere vil delta på arrangementet.
The answer to this question and more is given in a new Viten & Snakkis podcast by Margarida Pereira in a conversation with Carla Hughes (both at PANSOC).
In the following link Is there a relationship between obesity and COVID-19? – Viten og snakkis (oslomet.no), you can also find four other episodes about pandemics by other PANSOC members including S-E Mamelund, Vibeke Narverud Nyborg, Carla Hughes and Lara Steinmetz.
