Nushagak, Alaska, summer of 1919. The picture is from one of several orphanages that popped up in Alaska after the terrible “Spanish flu” pandemic had killed a high number of parents and younger siblings leaving only a handful of children aged 5-14 in the most severely hit villages. Source: Alaska Historical Library.
Watch Jord Hanus (University of Antwerp) present “Socioeconomic Status and Epidemic Mortality in an Urban Environment (Mechelen, Belgium): Were Dysentery (1794) and Cholera (1866) Socially Neutral Diseases?” here:
In week 20 (16-19 May), PANSOC will host Kaspar Staub | LinkedIn (Dr. PhD and head of Institute of evolutionary medicine, University of Zürich) as a guest researcher. We will discuss ongoing and future research collaborations, and Dr. Staub will among other things, also give a public lecture at OsloMet University library on May 18th from 11:30-12:00. You can read more here: (3) Excess mortality during past and present pandemics | Facebook
1. Short presentation of the center – research perspectives and main goals
PANSOC is an internationally innovative research center that uses social science approaches to understand the past and present effects of pandemics. Similar centers have appeared at several prestigious universities during the COVID-19 pandemic, but only PANSOC has members that have been researching pandemics for over 25 years using social science and historical perspectives. Most of the other pandemic centers have their origins in medical schools, are primarily concerned with biomedical challenges, and only examine recent infectious diseases outbreaks. The extensive expertise and unique perspective of PANSOC’s researchers enable us to advance the global scientific frontier and contribute to important public and policy debates.
The creation of the center is mainly due to OsloMet’s investment in five Centres of Research Excellence (CRE), as well as individual researchers’ efforts to secure external research funding in Norway (FRIPRO) and in the EU (ERC) since 2016, in cooperation with the R&D department at OsloMet. PANSOC is not a further development of the existing research groups, and pandemic studies were not a focus research field at OsloMet until 2021.
2. Research projects and funding applications
In order to build up PANSOC from scratch, it has been absolutely necessary to win external research funding. The center has received funding from the EU (MSCA) and two programs in the Norwegian Research Council (PANRISK: funded by the SAMRISK program, with a top score of 7 in all areas, and CorRisk: COVID emergency call). We have also succeeded in obtaining funding for a stay at the Center for Advanced Studies (CAS) at the Norwegian Academy for Science and Letters in Oslo from August 2022 to June 2023. During the latter project, 15 international researchers with a background in epidemiology, genetics, social sciences and history will study why Indigenous peoples are vulnerable to serious disease during pandemics. PANSOC is the first OsloMet group awarded a research stay at CAS. The selection of CAS research groups follows an extensive review process by international experts, which shows the outstanding international quality of PANSOC’s research.
PANSOC sent three applications for pandemic studies to Excellence pillars in the EU and Norway including MSCA (12 October 2021 deadline, with a researcher from the University of St. Petersburg, Russia), Young CAS Fellow (9 December 2021 deadline) and ERC starting grant (13 January 2022 deadline). We also sent one proposal for an EEA Grant, which was funded (in collaboration with ISPUP, Portugal).
3. Research team and institutional collaborations
PANSOC consists of 16 researchers/scholars with a diversity of international backgrounds, experience, gender and age. Only the head of PANSOC, Professor Svenn-Erik Mamelund, is permanently employed. The co-leader, Jessica Dimka (PhD in anthropology from the University of Missouri), came to OsloMet in 2019 as a MSCA fellow. With CRE and RCN funding, two postdoctoral fellows have been employed, and they come from the highly renowned University of Coimbra, Portugal (Margarida Pereira, a geographer, since May 2021), and the University of Oxford, England (Benjamin Schneider, an economic historian, since March 2022). PANSOC also has three master’s students, two from OsloMet’s master’s program «International Social Welfare and Health Policy» (Lara Steinmetz from the Netherlands and Carla Hughes from England) who are supported by stipends from CRE funds, and one history student from University of Southeast Norway (USN) (Christina Stylegar Torjussen). Our MA students have contributed to our academic activities including presenting at internal meetings, PANSOC webinars, conferences, and taking part in interviews with media and in podcasts. Our 3 MA students are expected to submit their thesis in the Spring of 2022.
An associate history professor from USN has spent her research time on pandemic projects in collaboration with PANSOC. Five researchers from the Work Research Institute and Consumption Research Norway at OsloMet, as well as two research assistants, have contributed to various projects.
Additionally, the growing profile of PANSOC has attracted guest scholars. A fourth year PhD student in demography from The European University Institute, Florence, (Hilde Orderud) is a guest researcher at PANSOC in 2021-22. For a week in December 2021, PANSOC was also visited by a guest researcher from the University of Roskilde (historian Mathias Mølbak Ingholt), and future visits are also planned by other international colleagues (e.g., Prof. in history Kaspar Staub, University of Zürich, who will stay for a week in May 2022).
Via the ongoing PANRISK-funded RCN project and the upcoming CAS-stay, PANSOC collaborates with the Pandemic Center in Bergen (Esperanza Diaz), the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (Birgitte Klüwer), PandemiX Center, the University of Roskilde (Lone Simonsen, Søren Ørskov, Mathias Mølbak Ingholt), and with researchers at the universities of Umeå (Åke Brännström), Zürich (Kaspar Staub), ISPUP, Portugal (Ana Isabel Ribeiro), Philadelphia (Megan Todd), Missouri (Lisa Sattenspiel & Taylor P. van Doren), California, Irvine (Andrew Noymer), Michigan (Siddharth Chandra), Arizona (Amanda Wissler, Gerardo Chowell-Puente), Northern British Columbia (Lianne Tripp), Alberta (Courtney Heffernan), Queensland (Katherine Kedzierska), Melbourne (Kirsty Short & Lauren Steele), Auckland (Heather Battles) and Otago (Michael Baker).
The first report from the Norwegian Corona Commission was presented 14 April 2021. PANSOC contributed by delivering an invited report and the report cites several of our op eds and also scientific journal publications (e.g. article 9 in appendix 1 below). This shows that our work has had clear political impact also in a Norwegian context.
PANSOC began to organize a webinar series in spring 2021, which has had nearly 30 talks to date, given by international researchers with participants from most world regions. The presentations encompass the breadth of research by PANSOC’s members and our many global collaborators, showcasing work on the social, economic, political, and cultural impacts and aspects of past pandemics as well as COVID-19.
PANSOC organized and hosted the 2nd Norwegian Historical Demography Meeting (NHDM) 17-18 January 2022. The first NHDM was held in Trondheim 1-2 December 2019. The planned NHDMs in 2020 and 2021 were postponed due to COVID-19 but was held this time on Zoom. In total, 13 talks from colleagues across 6 universities in Scandinavia were held in 6 sessions. Carla Hughes, Christina Stylegar Torjussen, Jessica Dimka and Svenn-Erik Mamelund were PANSOC members presenting.
During 2021 and to date, PANSOC has attracted some of the best international students and researchers doing social science and historical research on pandemics, sent applications to excellence pillars in funding entities, published many articles in top international journals, shared our research findings with the national and international public, and our research has had clear policy impact.
Ingelsrud, Mari Holm (2021): Ikke alle har mulighet til å jobbe fra hjemmekontor. Ramazzini. Norsk tidsskrift for arbeids- og miljømedisin, 28(1): 14-18.
Excess mortality quantifies the overall mortality impact of a pandemic. This presentation summarises recent research that historically contextualises COVID-19 for Switzerland and other countries by comparing past and present pandemics based on equivalent mortality data.
The presentation will be held by dr. Kaspar Staub, who will be a guest researcher at Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC) 16-19 May. Staub is a historian and epidemiologist and works at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. Staub is the leader at the research group “Anthropometry and Historical Epidemiology” at the Institute of Evolutionary Medicine.
The event is free, open for all and part of the brown bag seminar series “Lunsjpåfyll” held by the University Library at OsloMet. The talk takes place 11:30-12:00 at Library P48 (Pilestredet 48), ground floor.
At 1600 Oslo time, Lianne Tripp, University of Northern British Columbia, will present:
Overlooking the demographic data: COVID-19 in First Nations in Canada
Previous studies on Indigenous populations and COVID-19 have argued for the need to collect COVID-19 data on Indigenous populations because during times of pandemics they experience more severe health outcomes in relation to their non-Indigenous counterparts. Counterintuitively, studies have found that the COVID-19 rates for some countries (such as in Canada) are higher in non-Indigenous population than Indigenous populations. A re-examination of COVID-19 in Canada reveals misinterpretations and misrepresentations of the data. The failure to recognize that the Canadian COVID-19 data for Indigenous populations was collected for First Nations living on reserves only is one misinterpretation. By end of December 2020, the prevalence rates were higher in First Nations populations living on reserves than non-First Nations populations, and COVID-19 mortality rates in First Nations exceeded the rest of the country by the end of April 2021. There was also considerable regional variation in rates of COVID-19 among First Nations communities across the country, where in western Canada the highest rates were observed.
Dr Tripp is a medical anthropologist, whose research involves the areas of historical demography and epidemiology (infectious diseases). Emphasis is given to combining an empirical approach with a bio-cultural lens on demographic, primary health reports and qualitative information from historical records. Lianne’s publications have dealt with such matters as: colonial health; disease risk; bio-cultural dimensions of epidemics and pandemics; age and sex/gender differentials in disease experience; and health and religiosity. The diseases of focus are cholera, COVID-19, measles, 1918 pandemic influenza, tuberculosis, undulant fever, whooping cough, and yellow fever.
Journalist Annalisa Merelli in Quartz.com has interviewed our master student Carla Hughes on her research on the 1918 influenza and suicide risks while centre leader Mamelund has shared earlier research and his thoughts on the increases risks of asylum hospitalizations assoctaed with the “Spanish flu” pandemic. Read more in here: Why is the great resignation happening? — Quartz (qz.com)
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed considerable challenges to people’s mental health, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression increased substantially during the pandemic. Early detection of potential depression is crucial for timely preventive interventions; therefore, there is a need for depression prediction.
This study was based on survey data collected from 5001 Norwegians (3001 in 2020 and 2000 in 2021). Machine learning models were used to predict depression risk and to select models with the best performance for each pandemic phase. Probability thresholds were chosen based on cost-sensitive analysis, and measures such as accuracy (ACC) and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the models’ performance.
The study found that decision tree models and regularised regressions had the best performance in both 2020 and 2021. For the 2020 predictions, the highest accuracies were obtained using gradient boosting machines (ACC = 0.72, AUC = 0.74) and random forest algorithm (ACC = 0.71, AUC = 0.75). For the 2021 predictions, the random forest (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) and elastic net regularisation (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) exhibited the best performances. Highly ranked predictors of depression that remained stable over time were self-perceived exposure risks, income, compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions, frequency of being outdoors, contact with family and friends and work–life conflict. While epidemiological factors (having COVID symptoms or having close contact with the infected) influenced the level of psychological distress to a larger extent in the relatively early stage of pandemic, the importance of socioeconomic factors (gender, age, household type and employment status) increased substantially in the later stage.Conclusion: Machine learning models consisting of demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and epidemiological features can be used for fast ‘first-hand’ screening to diagnose mental health problems. The models may be helpful for stakeholders and healthcare providers to provide early diagnosis and intervention, as well as to provide insight into forecasting which social groups are more vulnerable to mental illness in which social settings.
Friday the 3rd of March, 3 PANSOC members presented their work in the session “Short- and long-term social and demographic of the 1918 influenza pandemic, see more info on this an other sesssions here: ESHD2022 Final Programme – ESHD2022 Conference
