PANSOC affiliated students and researchers interviewed in Quartz on pandemics & mental health

masv on 23. March 2022

Journalist Annalisa Merelli in Quartz.com has interviewed our master student Carla Hughes on her research on the 1918 influenza and suicide risks while centre leader Mamelund has shared earlier research and his thoughts on the increases risks of asylum hospitalizations assoctaed with the “Spanish flu” pandemic. Read more in here: Why is the great resignation happening? — Quartz (qz.com)

Interior of Hospital during the influenza epidemic. The beds are isolated by curtains

Next webinar this Thursday

masv on 15. March 2022

The next PANSOC webinar will be March 17 at 1600 CET. Margarida Pereira will present: “The 2020 Syndemic of Obesity and COVID-19 in an Urbanized World.”

One-hundred years after one of the largest infectious disease pandemics, the Spanish influenza, the world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. As in 1918-20, the most common public health measures in 2020 to control the spread of this highly contagious disease were essentially non-pharmaceutical. The first COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in urban areas, which confirmed that these areas bring together the perfect conditions for fast dissemination of infectious diseases. Also, at an early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, physicians and scientists observed that individuals with specific comorbidities, and namely with obesity, not only were at higher risk of contracting severe illness but also had increased odds of dying. Hence, urban areas became naturally privileged settings for the uprising of the syndemic of obesity and COVID-19.

Margarida Pereira is a Health Geographer, and her research focuses on the social determinants of health. Currently, Margarida is a postdoctoral fellow at PANSOC and is studying the syndemic relation between obesity and COVID-19 from a social science perspective.

Next webinar on March 10

masv on 7. March 2022

Tamara Giles-Vernick, Institut Pasteur, will present: “Complex local vulnerabilities and the COVID-19 pandemic in France.”

Who is responsible for health during a pandemic? This long-standing question, debated widely among state and local authorities, international institutions, and health experts, has also come to fore in our Vulnerability Assessment among lay publics in France and four other European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. This presentation draws on our 177 qualitative interviews (157 Vulnerability Assessments + 20 supplementary interviews) conducted in France in 2021.

Dr. Tamara Giles-Vernick is Director of Research and Unit head of the Anthropology and Ecology of Disease Emergence Unit – the Institut Pasteur’s first social sciences research unit in its 130-year history. Dr. Giles-Vernick currently coordinates SoNAR-Global, a European Commission-funded global social sciences research network for preparedness and response to infectious threats. A specialist in the medical anthropology and history of central and west Africa, her current research focuses on COVID-19 and its consequences, as well as the emergence of zoonotic diseases and epidemics. In addition, she has published on viral hepatitis, Ebola, Buruli ulcer, the historical emergence of HIV in Africa, global health in Africa, the history of influenza pandemics, and environmental history.

Contact jessicad@oslomet.no for a Zoom link.

New paper out: Predicting Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Socioeconomic Factors Matter?

masv on 6. March 2022

portrait of researcher Nan Bakkeli

Nan Zou Bakkeli at PANSOC and Consumption Reserch Norway has just published a new paper in the journal “Social Science Computer Review”. You can read it here: Predicting Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Socioeconomic Factors Matter? – Nan Zou Bakkeli, 2022 (sagepub.com)

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed considerable challenges to people’s mental health, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression increased substantially during the pandemic. Early detection of potential depression is crucial for timely preventive interventions; therefore, there is a need for depression prediction.

This study was based on survey data collected from 5001 Norwegians (3001 in 2020 and 2000 in 2021). Machine learning models were used to predict depression risk and to select models with the best performance for each pandemic phase. Probability thresholds were chosen based on cost-sensitive analysis, and measures such as accuracy (ACC) and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the models’ performance.

The study found that decision tree models and regularised regressions had the best performance in both 2020 and 2021. For the 2020 predictions, the highest accuracies were obtained using gradient boosting machines (ACC = 0.72, AUC = 0.74) and random forest algorithm (ACC = 0.71, AUC = 0.75). For the 2021 predictions, the random forest (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) and elastic net regularisation (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) exhibited the best performances. Highly ranked predictors of depression that remained stable over time were self-perceived exposure risks, income, compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions, frequency of being outdoors, contact with family and friends and work–life conflict. While epidemiological factors (having COVID symptoms or having close contact with the infected) influenced the level of psychological distress to a larger extent in the relatively early stage of pandemic, the importance of socioeconomic factors (gender, age, household type and employment status) increased substantially in the later stage.Conclusion: Machine learning models consisting of demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and epidemiological features can be used for fast ‘first-hand’ screening to diagnose mental health problems. The models may be helpful for stakeholders and healthcare providers to provide early diagnosis and intervention, as well as to provide insight into forecasting which social groups are more vulnerable to mental illness in which social settings.

Webinar returns next week at special time

masv on 18. February 2022

On 24 February at a special time (1400 CET), David Roth of the Australian National University will present in the PANSOC webinar series (email jessicad@oslomet.no if you need a link).

The effects of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic on mental patients in New South Wales – Work-In-Progress

Before the current pandemic, there has been relatively little research on the effects of the 1918-1919 pandemic on the mentally ill, even though its sequelae of persistent mental and physical afflictions among the general population have been well-established in the literature. During 1919, 180 patients in New South Wales (NSW) asylums died from influenza, a crude mortality rate of 8.4 per cent. An unknown number of patients recovered. The case notes for a major Sydney asylum, Callan Park, indicate that surviving patients may have suffered an exacerbation of their psychiatric condition, a form of ‘long flu’. The notes also show that influenza was the underlying cause of mental illness at admission in some cases. Although recording practices at Callan Park and other NSW asylums were patchy, the surviving evidence nevertheless suggests that there were significant gender differences for mortality and infection rates. The age distribution of influenza mortality and infection also appears to be somewhat different than for the general population of NSW. It did not follow the famous ‘W-shaped curve’. In this presentation, I discuss my preliminary results, and explain my methodology and its limitations. I also examine the prevention measures which were undertaken and discuss their efficacy in crowded asylum environments. The special vulnerability of mental patients in crowded asylums underlines the importance of precautionary preparations for persons under institutional care during epidemics, especially the aged, or persons with mental or physical disability. We have still not learnt this lesson with COVID.

Dr David T. Roth is a Campus Visitor at the School of History at the Australian National University. He completed a PhD thesis in July 2020 on the topic ‘Life, Death and Deliverance at Callan Park Hospital for the Insane 1877 to 1923’. He has particular interests in the mortality of the mentally ill, aged care and the history of medications at this period. His publications include ‘Chemical Restraints at Callan Park Hospital for the Insane before 1900’ in Health and History. David has contributed to the Civil Liberties Association’s submission to the Royal Commission on Aged Care. He is currently researching the effects of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic on mental patients in NSW and the efficacy of bacterial vaccines at this period.