New paper out: Predicting Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Socioeconomic Factors Matter?

masv on 6. March 2022

portrait of researcher Nan Bakkeli

Nan Zou Bakkeli at PANSOC and Consumption Reserch Norway has just published a new paper in the journal “Social Science Computer Review”. You can read it here: Predicting Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Do Socioeconomic Factors Matter? – Nan Zou Bakkeli, 2022 (sagepub.com)

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed considerable challenges to people’s mental health, and the prevalence of anxiety and depression increased substantially during the pandemic. Early detection of potential depression is crucial for timely preventive interventions; therefore, there is a need for depression prediction.

This study was based on survey data collected from 5001 Norwegians (3001 in 2020 and 2000 in 2021). Machine learning models were used to predict depression risk and to select models with the best performance for each pandemic phase. Probability thresholds were chosen based on cost-sensitive analysis, and measures such as accuracy (ACC) and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the models’ performance.

The study found that decision tree models and regularised regressions had the best performance in both 2020 and 2021. For the 2020 predictions, the highest accuracies were obtained using gradient boosting machines (ACC = 0.72, AUC = 0.74) and random forest algorithm (ACC = 0.71, AUC = 0.75). For the 2021 predictions, the random forest (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) and elastic net regularisation (ACC = 0.76, AUC = 0.78) exhibited the best performances. Highly ranked predictors of depression that remained stable over time were self-perceived exposure risks, income, compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions, frequency of being outdoors, contact with family and friends and work–life conflict. While epidemiological factors (having COVID symptoms or having close contact with the infected) influenced the level of psychological distress to a larger extent in the relatively early stage of pandemic, the importance of socioeconomic factors (gender, age, household type and employment status) increased substantially in the later stage.Conclusion: Machine learning models consisting of demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural and epidemiological features can be used for fast ‘first-hand’ screening to diagnose mental health problems. The models may be helpful for stakeholders and healthcare providers to provide early diagnosis and intervention, as well as to provide insight into forecasting which social groups are more vulnerable to mental illness in which social settings.

Webinar returns next week at special time

masv on 18. February 2022

On 24 February at a special time (1400 CET), David Roth of the Australian National University will present in the PANSOC webinar series (email jessicad@oslomet.no if you need a link).

The effects of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic on mental patients in New South Wales – Work-In-Progress

Before the current pandemic, there has been relatively little research on the effects of the 1918-1919 pandemic on the mentally ill, even though its sequelae of persistent mental and physical afflictions among the general population have been well-established in the literature. During 1919, 180 patients in New South Wales (NSW) asylums died from influenza, a crude mortality rate of 8.4 per cent. An unknown number of patients recovered. The case notes for a major Sydney asylum, Callan Park, indicate that surviving patients may have suffered an exacerbation of their psychiatric condition, a form of ‘long flu’. The notes also show that influenza was the underlying cause of mental illness at admission in some cases. Although recording practices at Callan Park and other NSW asylums were patchy, the surviving evidence nevertheless suggests that there were significant gender differences for mortality and infection rates. The age distribution of influenza mortality and infection also appears to be somewhat different than for the general population of NSW. It did not follow the famous ‘W-shaped curve’. In this presentation, I discuss my preliminary results, and explain my methodology and its limitations. I also examine the prevention measures which were undertaken and discuss their efficacy in crowded asylum environments. The special vulnerability of mental patients in crowded asylums underlines the importance of precautionary preparations for persons under institutional care during epidemics, especially the aged, or persons with mental or physical disability. We have still not learnt this lesson with COVID.

Dr David T. Roth is a Campus Visitor at the School of History at the Australian National University. He completed a PhD thesis in July 2020 on the topic ‘Life, Death and Deliverance at Callan Park Hospital for the Insane 1877 to 1923’. He has particular interests in the mortality of the mentally ill, aged care and the history of medications at this period. His publications include ‘Chemical Restraints at Callan Park Hospital for the Insane before 1900’ in Health and History. David has contributed to the Civil Liberties Association’s submission to the Royal Commission on Aged Care. He is currently researching the effects of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic on mental patients in NSW and the efficacy of bacterial vaccines at this period.

New Podcast Interview

masv on 11. February 2022

PANSOC co-leader Jessica Dimka recently recorded an episode of the Sausage of Science podcast from the Human Biology Association. The focus of the interview was her recent paper, co-authored with Lisa Sattenspiel of the University of Missouri, titled “’We didn’t get much schooling because we were fishing all the time’: Potential impacts of irregular school attendance on the spread of epidemics.”

Listen to the podcast: https://soundcloud.com/humanbiologyassociation/sos-151-modeling-a-pandemic-with-dr-jessica-dimka

Read the paper: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajhb.23578

Webinar this Thursday

masv on 7. February 2022

Centre for Research on Pandemics & Society (PANSOC)

‘Killing cockroaches with a nuclear weapon’: The Victorian Pandemic Management Bill.

On 10 February at 1600 CET, Binoy Kampmark, RMIT University Melbourne, will discuss the proposed arrogation of vast powers to the Victorian state government in Australia, the creation of what would be a permanent emergency powers regime that could be invoked at any time by the executive, irrespective of evidence of a pandemic. Dr. Kampmark will consider the attempts to amend the proposed legislation, the large protests against it, and the various arguments in pandemic governance.

Binoy Kampmark is a contributing editor to CounterPunch, Senior Lecturer in Global Studies at RMIT University, and former Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, University of Cambridge.

Contact jessicad@oslomet.no for a Zoom link.

PANSOC just published in top 5 journal in medicine on excess mortality from pandemics

masv on 1. February 2022

As an OsloMet Centre of Research Excellence, we at PANSOC are so proud to have co-authored an original research article with Swiss colleagues in “Annals of Internal Medicine”. This highly prestigious journal has an impact factor of 25.4 and is considered one of top 5 in medicine together with JAMA, New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet and The BMJ. You can read the paper here:

Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain | Annals of Internal Medicine (acpjournals.org)

Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain | Annals of Internal Medicine