Category: News

For the fourth Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2025 series we are pleased to welcome Hampton Gaddy (London School of Economics & University of Oxford). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 9th October at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Blurb: A large body of social science and health research uses measures of the 1918 influenza pandemic’s mortality to estimate what the biosocial effects of the pandemic were. However, many of the pandemic measures used in this research either exhibit very high rates of error; are systematically correlated with pre-pandemics determinants of the effect of interest; or are a poorly chosen estimand for testing the causal chain of interest. Additionally, even though pandemics have wide-ranging impacts on society, many existing studies do not attempt to rule out plausible alternate channels linking the pandemic to the effect of interest. Each of these four methodological problems can produce false negative results, false positive results, and false positive results of the incorrect sign. We illustrate the extent of these problems using a series of helpful case studies from the 1918 context. In doing so, we make methodological contributions that stress the importance for causal research on pandemic of conducting sensitivity analyses on the calculation of excess mortality, accounting for omitted variable and collider bias, and measuring pandemic severity for the most theoretically appropriate time period and point-of-view.

Biography: Hampton Gaddy is a PhD researcher in demography and economic history at the London School of Economics and an affiliate at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford. He works primarily on the 1918 influenza pandemic, the determinants of its mortality, and its social consequences.

For the second Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2025 series we are pleased to welcome Max Marczinek (University of Oxford). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 25 September at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Blurb: In this webinar, Marczinek will present a paper studying the relationship between labour scarcity and productivity in the context of a 1710s plague outbreak. While higher wages should have led to an export contraction, exports grew after plagued regions shifted into capital-intensive production. Using a Ricardian model, he show that productivity growth in capital-intensive sectors is best suited to explain this export boom. Marczinek argue that labour scarcity incentivises capital-intensive production which raises productivity growth.

Biography: Max Marczinek is a 4th year PhD student in Economics at Oxford University. His research studies trade, labour, and economic history. He combine trade models with novel and often historical data sources, using theory to extract new insights from granular data.

For the first Pandemics & Society Seminar of our Fall 2025 series we are pleased to welcome Robert Braid (University of Montpellier). The seminar will be held on Thursday, 18 September at the normal time (1600 CEST). More information about our speaker and the presentation is below. You can sign up for email notifications about the seminar series, including the Zoom details, here.

Abstract: This paper integrates the findings of psychology and behavioral economics in order to understand better an historical phenomenon. After the Black Death, a plague epidemic which wiped out roughly 40% of the population, the historical data runs counter to all economic theory that would predict an increase in productivity and higher real wages. Peasants inherited the most fertile lands and had larger farms, yet grain yields fell. Capital (tools, windmills, livestock, carts, etc.) per capita increased tremendously but productivity fell. Commercial infrastructure and public administration remained intact, but trade dropped off. There was an acute shortage of labour yet real wages stagnated. Although climate factors may account for some of these trends, they don’t explain all, leaving economic historians of this period perplexed. This study argues that the Black Death caused trauma in survivors, altering levels of biochemicals leading to increased agitation and lack of attention in some and disengagement in others, similar to the behavior of victims of PTSD. Chroniclers and other observers recorded a number of behavior patterns among survivors which suggest that the Black Death was a deeply traumatic event which affected their ability to work. These findings are also consistent with the historical data on productivity and may also shed light on the increased levels of civil unrest in the post-plague era.

Biography: Robert Braid is Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Montpellier (France), and member of the Center for Environmental Research – Montpellier. He focuses on the origins of economic regulations across different western European regions, in particular in the 13th and 14th centuries. Most of his work has been dedicated to understanding the psychological, social and economic impact of the Black Death which gave rise to a broad wave of unprecedented economic regulations seeking to constrain the demands of workers and retailers. He has also worked on the medieval scholastic literature that attempts to give a moral framework both for economic agents and for rulers who seek to regulate their behavior, and how this literature changed soon after the plague. He has also worked on wage theory and the history of economic thought in general.